***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 59.8 114.2 62.0 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 38.0 45.0 57.2 117.4 64.9 60.9 21.6 33.3 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 43.7 60.3 61.0 117.9 66.7 62.4 30.9 38.9 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 60.8 59.8 71.5 129.8 73.2 68.8 31.8 49.3 55.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 61.5 64.7 68.9 126.7 72.5 67.7 34.4 43.8 55.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 52.0 56.5 71.4 135.8 77.2 72.7 29.6 37.8 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 42.4 48.2 56.5 116.8 64.2 60.4 21.2 37.4 49.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 72.7 77.8 74.5 128.7 76.0 69.9 50.6 60.0 67.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 47.0 48.6 67.7 124.4 70.9 67.2 26.8 32.5 44.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 52.9 55.5 72.6 127.6 75.1 69.5 36.9 42.0 47.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 54.3 57.7 66.9 129.8 74.4 69.7 35.2 40.9 48.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 53.9 58.2 67.3 127.3 73.7 69.1 35.3 41.7 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 59.9 67.0 71.6 131.5 77.1 72.4 38.7 42.8 58.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 67.1 62.2 70.3 118.0 68.0 63.8 47.4 56.0 61.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 64.5 70.7 74.1 129.4 72.2 67.6 28.5 45.4 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 59.3 68.4 68.2 131.6 75.4 71.1 27.3 39.8 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 38.5 45.6 54.5 116.1 65.1 60.1 27.3 33.3 46.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 53.4 58.8 76.9 124.2 73.7 68.1 35.4 39.5 45.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 38.9 50.6 58.2 116.7 64.4 61.1 25.5 33.2 54.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 66.6 73.7 96.5 129.7 75.7 69.5 33.8 48.9 64.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 51.2 55.3 64.4 121.1 70.6 64.6 31.1 36.3 49.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 42.0 46.9 56.2 113.7 64.2 59.4 27.7 38.3 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 38.7 50.0 60.8 116.1 64.5 61.5 24.6 33.8 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 57.9 53.2 68.8 120.0 70.2 65.0 44.4 49.7 52.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 42.5 50.5 68.3 119.0 66.2 63.1 28.5 39.1 50.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 55.6 59.6 71.6 125.6 75.4 69.7 30.7 41.7 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 39.3 41.6 63.5 114.0 63.5 59.9 27.7 32.7 49.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 56.4 62.8 71.9 133.0 73.0 69.9 27.5 34.8 53.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 82.8 88.0 83.3 124.6 73.0 67.5 63.4 69.4 75.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 41.1 49.3 58.2 116.7 64.4 60.9 23.1 36.7 51.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------