***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.3 97.4 63.0 52.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.7 14.3 10.4 93.0 60.8 51.4 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.2 14.5 10.9 97.0 62.0 53.4 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.1 18.3 13.9 128.4 72.6 61.4 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.0 14.6 12.3 114.0 67.1 57.6 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.2 12.1 13.2 118.0 68.2 59.2 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.2 15.1 10.8 94.7 62.2 51.7 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 18.9 13.6 116.5 64.6 57.3 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.9 11.8 106.1 62.3 55.3 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.4 12.7 109.7 62.1 55.9 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.6 11.7 111.7 64.9 55.7 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.6 12.5 116.4 66.3 57.3 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.7 12.9 113.6 65.9 57.4 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.8 16.6 12.3 97.7 57.4 53.6 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 21.6 27.4 15.2 143.7 78.4 62.6 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.8 12.3 116.2 68.1 57.6 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.7 10.4 96.2 60.3 50.8 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.5 13.8 109.7 64.9 57.0 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.4 10.3 91.8 60.2 51.6 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 15.5 17.6 119.2 66.6 58.9 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.6 11.7 104.1 63.0 54.5 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.1 10.4 96.1 58.7 50.9 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 92.1 60.6 51.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.8 12.5 12.3 103.0 61.9 54.9 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.4 17.7 13.2 108.4 66.4 54.9 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.8 13.9 120.9 69.1 59.1 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.5 12.2 99.0 64.9 52.3 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 19.6 21.0 14.0 134.8 74.4 62.0 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 19.1 14.9 110.7 65.0 57.6 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.2 10.6 93.4 61.9 52.2 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------