***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 112.7 66.1 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.9 13.8 113.6 64.7 53.0 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.3 13.8 107.9 61.7 53.7 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.9 15.6 109.8 62.9 53.5 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.5 14.2 98.9 57.8 49.9 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.6 13.8 14.1 95.8 51.7 48.1 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.4 13.7 115.2 66.2 53.2 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.4 15.8 100.9 59.1 50.3 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.8 13.6 93.0 54.6 48.4 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.6 14.9 96.1 56.9 49.2 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.6 11.2 13.6 99.4 57.3 49.4 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.4 13.9 99.3 57.4 49.5 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.7 14.1 96.4 55.1 48.6 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.6 15.4 94.9 57.0 50.2 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 17.9 16.6 117.7 67.4 54.7 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.7 13.8 100.0 55.5 49.6 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.4 13.2 110.4 63.7 52.2 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 9.9 16.7 96.8 57.5 50.2 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.4 13.8 111.1 64.3 52.8 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.2 22.4 107.4 63.9 52.9 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 13.6 99.8 57.3 51.0 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 13.4 104.6 62.0 50.7 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.7 13.9 105.0 61.9 52.1 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.2 11.5 15.0 97.2 59.0 51.1 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 14.4 15.2 107.5 59.6 53.2 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.7 14.2 93.3 53.1 48.9 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.5 14.8 110.5 63.2 53.1 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.3 15.3 109.4 63.0 52.6 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 21.2 18.9 99.8 60.1 51.3 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.7 13.9 114.6 65.1 53.8 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------