***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 125.0 70.0 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.0 13.2 17.0 143.6 74.8 66.1 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.0 12.1 16.8 131.3 72.1 64.0 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.2 16.7 18.9 141.3 74.9 64.3 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.1 16.8 17.6 133.2 74.5 62.1 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.3 19.1 143.6 71.9 62.3 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.7 15.2 17.2 145.3 74.7 65.4 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.5 26.1 18.6 131.1 72.9 62.6 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.1 12.5 17.1 128.8 73.9 62.2 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.5 18.2 18.2 131.8 74.5 62.6 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.2 15.9 16.6 131.7 73.6 62.1 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 15.9 17.2 16.9 130.1 72.6 62.2 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 15.2 17.9 134.3 72.8 61.7 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.4 22.6 19.3 133.0 71.4 63.2 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.4 20.1 136.1 73.0 62.6 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.8 18.7 17.2 136.6 74.7 62.7 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.6 16.5 149.7 75.2 67.0 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 16.7 18.2 20.1 132.5 75.6 63.5 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.3 16.8 138.5 73.2 65.1 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 11.4 16.4 24.8 132.0 73.3 63.3 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.1 16.5 125.6 72.1 62.5 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.4 17.0 16.7 144.2 74.7 66.7 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.0 17.0 130.9 70.7 62.8 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.7 20.8 18.4 131.1 73.8 62.7 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.3 10.1 18.2 126.6 70.7 62.9 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.2 18.7 132.6 73.2 61.6 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.0 17.7 125.7 70.0 62.8 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.0 19.0 19.1 141.9 74.2 63.2 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 26.7 29.8 21.9 131.3 73.1 63.2 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.9 17.1 139.6 73.8 65.5 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------