***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 18.0 118.8 63.3 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.2 16.0 118.0 66.4 60.0 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 13.4 17.6 19.6 130.9 73.9 65.8 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 14.6 15.5 23.1 138.8 73.5 67.6 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.2 17.4 24.8 155.3 78.3 73.3 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 11.1 15.7 25.0 187.6 83.6 77.7 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.0 14.9 111.7 59.6 56.9 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 18.0 22.5 26.4 162.3 77.9 73.8 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 13.3 15.9 25.1 164.0 81.2 76.1 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.1 18.1 26.7 167.8 80.9 76.0 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.4 17.4 25.0 169.2 80.9 75.4 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.8 24.0 158.4 75.8 72.4 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 17.2 26.2 26.7 176.5 84.5 77.8 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 21.2 25.2 23.1 143.8 78.1 70.3 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.6 10.1 22.2 124.9 68.1 64.2 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.2 18.9 24.9 168.2 81.0 75.5 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.7 14.3 109.5 58.3 55.9 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.2 17.1 26.3 155.7 79.2 73.4 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 13.6 16.1 17.3 122.5 70.9 62.1 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.4 22.7 31.7 158.7 80.1 72.7 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.9 15.8 22.7 149.0 77.6 71.5 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.7 15.6 15.7 110.6 63.6 56.7 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.6 17.3 19.5 131.5 75.2 66.1 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.3 21.4 23.1 145.0 77.7 70.7 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.0 12.9 21.7 130.0 67.8 65.0 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.2 16.0 24.8 153.2 78.0 72.1 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.4 11.2 18.8 118.1 62.0 60.4 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 13.1 10.8 23.5 145.5 74.9 69.7 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 19.6 24.3 27.6 155.1 78.8 72.6 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.8 12.3 16.6 117.3 65.4 60.1 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------