***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.4 -1.2 28.8 36.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.2 2.8 -1.3 29.7 35.6 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.5 4.8 3.4 -1.3 28.8 36.1 5.0 6.0 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 1.4 -1.5 23.4 33.2 -0.2 0.4 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 4.2 4.3 2.1 -1.5 25.5 33.9 4.7 5.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.6 3.9 1.7 -1.4 24.9 34.3 4.6 5.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.3 2.8 -1.2 30.6 36.3 3.4 4.4 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 1.7 -1.6 24.6 32.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.7 4.7 2.9 -1.4 26.0 34.8 5.5 6.4 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 3.8 4.2 2.2 -1.5 25.3 33.0 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.9 4.7 2.2 -1.4 28.2 34.4 4.9 5.8 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 4.2 4.5 2.1 -1.4 26.9 33.7 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 3.8 4.2 2.1 -1.4 26.6 34.3 4.7 5.6 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.6 4.4 2.8 -1.6 26.6 33.6 5.0 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.2 2.7 2.0 -1.3 25.4 34.8 3.0 4.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 4.6 4.8 2.1 -1.3 28.0 35.1 5.2 6.3 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 2.4 2.6 -1.4 28.8 35.0 2.6 4.1 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 2.0 2.3 2.0 -1.6 25.8 32.5 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.6 3.0 -1.3 29.4 35.6 3.9 5.1 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 1.4 1.8 0.5 -1.7 21.4 29.7 2.0 2.6 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 4.3 4.7 3.2 -1.3 27.4 35.3 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.3 3.1 2.7 -1.4 27.8 35.0 3.4 4.4 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.0 3.2 -1.4 29.2 35.4 4.4 4.7 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.8 4.5 2.9 -1.5 27.6 34.2 5.1 6.3 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.3 3.7 2.1 -1.4 24.9 34.2 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 3.6 3.8 1.8 -1.3 23.4 32.9 4.3 5.0 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.9 2.8 -1.2 27.4 36.2 5.1 5.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.5 1.8 -1.5 24.4 34.0 3.7 5.5 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.1 1.4 -1.6 24.9 31.7 1.5 2.7 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.1 -1.3 30.2 36.2 3.8 4.7 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------