***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 0.3 47.8 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.6 3.4 2.5 0.0 44.9 49.9 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.1 3.2 0.1 49.4 50.4 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.0 1.1 -0.3 42.6 48.2 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.0 1.9 -0.1 46.8 49.7 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.0 1.5 0.0 48.3 50.6 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.9 2.8 2.5 0.1 46.3 50.9 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.9 1.7 -0.1 48.2 49.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.8 2.8 0.0 48.7 50.3 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.9 2.3 0.0 48.9 50.0 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.0 2.1 0.1 48.2 50.9 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.2 2.1 0.1 47.6 51.1 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.4 1.9 0.3 48.4 52.3 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.1 2.8 -0.1 47.4 49.1 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.1 1.9 1.3 -0.4 40.9 47.9 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.4 1.8 0.1 46.6 51.0 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.6 2.5 2.3 -0.1 45.3 49.2 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.6 2.2 0.0 49.0 49.6 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.0 3.7 2.8 0.0 45.4 49.5 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.3 0.7 -0.1 47.6 48.4 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.8 3.0 0.1 49.2 50.7 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.6 2.9 2.4 -0.2 44.9 48.5 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.7 3.7 3.0 0.0 46.5 49.3 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.5 2.9 0.0 49.5 50.0 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.3 1.9 0.1 47.6 50.8 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.4 1.9 0.4 47.1 52.5 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.1 2.6 0.3 47.9 51.9 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.2 1.3 -0.4 41.1 47.7 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.4 1.5 1.6 0.0 48.6 49.4 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.4 3.7 2.8 0.1 46.4 50.5 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------