***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 -0.5 42.2 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.6 2.5 -0.7 39.4 46.0 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.7 3.2 -0.5 41.5 47.2 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 1.3 -0.8 38.7 45.2 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.1 1.9 -0.6 41.0 46.2 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.3 1.8 -0.2 48.4 48.9 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.5 -0.6 38.8 46.1 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.6 -1.1 1.9 -0.4 44.5 47.9 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.6 2.8 -0.5 43.4 46.9 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.3 -0.4 45.5 47.6 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.4 2.1 -0.5 43.0 47.1 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.0 2.2 -0.4 45.5 47.5 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.8 4.0 2.0 -0.3 47.2 48.5 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.1 2.8 -0.5 44.3 47.6 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.5 1.5 -0.8 40.9 45.5 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.3 1.9 -0.4 43.9 47.5 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.5 2.3 -0.8 38.2 45.2 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.7 2.2 -0.3 45.6 48.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.0 2.7 -0.7 40.6 46.1 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.4 0.5 0.8 -0.2 43.7 49.3 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.7 3.0 -0.5 42.5 46.9 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.9 2.7 2.4 -0.8 38.8 45.2 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.5 3.0 -0.6 42.4 46.3 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.3 3.0 -0.4 44.8 48.2 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.7 1.9 -0.6 41.7 46.5 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.8 1.9 -0.3 45.2 48.6 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.8 2.5 -0.5 42.7 47.3 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.5 -0.8 39.5 45.5 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.4 0.8 1.7 -0.2 44.5 49.1 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.6 2.7 -0.6 39.5 46.4 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------