***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.2 -3.9 18.1 17.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.7 1.4 2.7 -4.0 18.5 18.6 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 2.6 2.7 3.1 -4.1 18.2 18.4 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 0.8 -4.0 17.9 17.7 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 1.7 1.9 1.6 -4.4 17.5 18.2 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 1.1 1.2 0.9 -4.5 16.4 16.3 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 0.8 1.5 2.8 -3.8 18.9 18.4 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -3.3 -3.7 0.5 -4.9 14.9 15.4 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.5 -4.3 17.2 18.9 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 2.1 2.1 1.3 -4.9 15.9 16.8 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 1.8 1.9 1.6 -4.5 17.0 18.1 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 1.9 1.7 1.1 -4.7 15.2 16.3 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 1.7 1.4 1.5 -4.7 14.9 15.7 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.1 -4.9 18.2 18.2 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 1.8 1.9 2.5 -3.2 17.6 18.3 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 1.9 2.3 1.6 -4.3 17.4 17.7 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 0.7 1.4 2.3 -3.9 18.9 19.1 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 1.4 1.5 0.8 -5.1 16.2 16.2 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 1.0 1.4 2.8 -4.0 18.4 18.7 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -1.3 -1.7 -0.7 -5.0 13.5 13.3 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 2.4 2.5 2.9 -4.2 18.0 18.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.4 -4.0 19.9 19.3 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 1.7 2.1 2.9 -4.1 18.3 18.9 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 2.9 3.1 2.1 -4.8 18.0 17.9 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 1.4 1.9 2.0 -4.3 17.7 16.6 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 3.0 2.6 0.9 -4.6 13.5 13.7 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 2.4 2.8 2.8 -4.1 18.0 17.1 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 1.4 1.5 1.6 -3.8 18.0 18.2 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -5.0 15.2 15.3 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 1.2 1.8 3.0 -3.9 18.5 18.4 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------