***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 -0.8 30.2 42.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.0 30.1 38.2 -2.0 -1.7 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.5 -0.9 31.4 40.4 -0.3 0.1 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -6.0 -6.2 -3.7 -1.1 26.7 37.6 -5.8 -5.1 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -1.0 29.6 39.0 -2.4 -1.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -3.6 -2.9 -4.3 -0.8 34.8 41.0 -3.0 -2.1 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -0.9 32.1 39.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -7.3 -7.4 -4.1 -1.0 29.7 38.9 -7.1 -6.1 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -2.4 -0.8 33.2 41.2 -1.7 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 -2.6 -2.5 -3.6 -1.0 31.1 39.3 -2.5 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -3.4 -0.9 31.7 40.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 -3.2 -3.1 -3.6 -0.9 32.3 40.5 -3.0 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -3.6 -0.8 35.1 41.4 -2.5 -1.8 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -3.1 -1.2 33.1 37.5 -1.5 -0.9 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -2.9 -0.9 30.0 40.0 -3.1 -1.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.6 -0.9 32.6 41.0 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -2.6 -2.8 -2.0 -1.1 30.4 37.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -5.2 -4.2 -4.2 -1.1 31.5 38.9 -4.1 -2.9 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 30.1 38.3 -1.9 -1.5 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 -7.5 -6.8 -5.3 -1.1 30.6 37.6 -6.7 -5.8 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -2.2 -1.8 -1.7 -0.8 32.5 41.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1 -1.2 30.7 36.6 -2.3 -1.7 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 -0.9 31.0 38.8 -2.1 -1.7 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 -3.0 -1.0 32.0 39.1 -2.6 -1.5 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 -2.7 -1.0 28.6 38.8 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -2.9 -2.4 -3.5 -0.8 33.4 40.2 -2.4 -1.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.8 -0.9 31.3 41.5 -1.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4 -1.0 28.6 38.6 -3.2 -2.7 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -4.7 -1.1 31.8 38.7 -4.7 -3.9 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6 -0.9 30.8 39.6 -1.7 -1.2 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------