***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 38.2 41.4 58.1 118.9 64.1 61.6 24.8 30.0 44.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 48.9 56.0 53.6 128.8 72.4 65.6 23.2 33.3 44.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 44.5 61.4 57.5 119.9 65.1 61.7 31.9 37.2 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 53.3 50.3 58.1 102.3 51.6 52.5 31.0 49.8 55.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 50.6 50.3 59.7 107.4 55.7 55.2 35.2 44.6 57.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 41.5 38.3 52.1 100.6 52.6 50.9 29.4 37.7 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 53.7 58.2 52.0 126.6 71.5 64.6 24.3 38.3 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 64.6 62.4 62.5 107.7 57.3 55.6 52.6 59.6 69.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.2 37.6 60.2 108.9 57.4 55.8 26.6 34.0 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 47.7 46.3 62.9 108.9 58.8 56.0 36.9 42.2 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 46.4 45.7 58.9 108.2 58.4 55.8 37.9 42.1 52.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 46.9 50.4 58.0 108.7 58.3 56.4 37.0 43.7 53.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.2 52.5 61.3 108.7 59.8 56.5 38.2 42.2 58.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 70.4 66.7 71.6 124.6 70.3 65.0 47.2 57.7 62.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 53.8 49.5 55.2 103.0 54.7 52.6 27.3 46.8 64.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 45.4 43.5 58.0 107.5 57.6 55.5 30.1 39.2 52.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 47.5 54.4 51.9 130.6 73.4 66.0 26.4 32.7 47.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 46.9 49.0 66.8 113.5 62.7 58.7 35.7 42.7 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 54.3 62.3 55.6 129.3 72.3 66.2 25.9 36.4 53.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.5 60.6 79.6 111.6 62.0 58.3 34.4 57.4 65.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 42.9 45.8 59.5 113.0 60.8 57.9 30.0 36.8 53.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 49.9 60.0 55.4 132.4 75.9 67.2 28.6 35.0 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 52.0 54.0 59.3 128.2 71.0 66.0 27.3 34.0 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 58.7 57.4 64.8 118.1 66.4 61.3 47.0 50.0 57.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 40.9 49.8 62.8 111.0 60.0 57.7 28.5 35.8 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 44.5 42.2 59.1 106.8 57.9 56.1 30.1 40.1 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 42.7 42.7 59.7 115.7 63.5 60.2 27.7 33.6 51.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 43.7 37.5 54.0 101.1 51.6 51.7 29.1 36.9 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 77.7 78.6 71.8 115.1 63.3 59.8 63.4 74.0 79.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 53.8 57.1 54.5 125.5 70.4 64.5 23.4 37.7 51.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------