***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.0 10.4 90.8 54.3 46.1 4.1 5.6 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.1 9.3 93.8 59.0 46.9 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.1 10.4 91.6 56.3 45.8 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.8 12.1 96.2 58.1 48.8 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.1 12.3 11.8 94.9 57.3 48.8 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.2 11.5 97.2 58.7 51.6 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.2 9.0 94.4 59.6 47.7 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.7 12.9 96.8 57.7 50.6 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.5 8.4 12.2 94.7 56.3 48.7 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.5 12.8 95.7 56.5 49.6 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.6 11.6 95.8 59.6 50.1 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.3 9.9 11.8 97.9 59.0 51.4 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.7 13.1 12.2 98.3 58.5 51.3 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.9 13.6 99.5 58.6 49.3 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.6 11.7 96.9 62.2 49.7 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.2 11.6 96.8 58.7 50.9 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.8 8.9 93.4 59.0 47.3 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.0 13.1 94.3 54.6 49.2 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 11.1 9.7 94.1 58.2 46.6 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 12.7 16.3 95.5 55.0 50.2 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.7 10.8 11.6 94.0 57.0 47.3 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.7 9.4 91.8 58.4 46.9 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.1 10.7 95.9 58.1 47.1 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.5 12.2 94.4 56.1 48.1 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.3 10.7 12.1 93.9 54.3 47.4 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.3 12.5 103.4 61.0 52.1 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.8 10.9 90.9 54.3 46.6 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.5 11.3 95.5 59.6 49.9 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.0 16.1 14.1 95.1 53.9 49.8 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.4 9.6 93.0 57.2 46.5 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------