***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.0 13.5 108.9 63.5 51.1 5.5 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.5 12.2 117.9 67.1 51.8 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.3 12.9 108.1 62.8 50.8 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.8 14.6 106.0 62.2 50.4 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.8 15.9 14.0 100.1 58.1 49.3 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.6 15.2 13.6 105.5 61.4 50.9 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.0 11.5 112.7 63.9 51.4 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.6 17.5 13.6 93.9 55.2 47.3 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.5 13.9 95.6 56.9 47.6 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 15.4 13.8 93.4 53.9 47.0 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.2 13.3 99.6 57.5 49.3 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.9 13.1 100.0 58.9 49.3 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 7.6 17.4 14.7 107.7 59.8 52.5 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.3 15.5 15.0 105.3 59.4 49.9 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.9 14.8 114.2 68.4 52.4 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.7 16.7 14.1 108.6 61.3 52.3 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.3 11.6 115.5 65.5 51.7 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.7 13.8 92.1 52.7 45.8 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.0 12.8 119.7 67.5 51.9 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 14.3 16.5 91.0 51.6 46.4 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.0 13.6 13.7 101.5 60.3 49.0 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.3 12.9 123.9 67.1 52.4 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.2 13.5 118.3 67.8 51.3 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.0 12.8 13.4 97.7 56.9 47.5 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 14.9 103.7 59.6 49.8 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.1 14.4 14.2 105.3 59.5 51.6 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.6 14.0 105.9 60.9 50.4 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.0 13.8 107.6 64.7 51.2 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 20.6 14.4 91.5 51.0 45.5 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.6 12.5 115.8 65.5 51.5 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------