***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.0 9.7 16.1 125.9 70.4 60.5 2.3 3.8 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 135.4 72.8 63.0 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.9 14.2 15.7 123.2 69.5 59.4 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.5 14.9 101.9 61.0 54.3 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 16.7 112.2 63.3 57.5 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.8 13.6 102.3 61.4 54.3 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 15.7 17.5 14.0 136.7 73.7 63.0 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.7 17.1 115.4 63.7 58.6 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.4 16.5 114.4 64.0 57.1 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.2 13.3 17.3 116.7 63.6 58.6 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.0 10.5 16.2 113.0 62.9 58.5 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.5 15.5 111.3 61.7 58.0 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.2 17.0 115.4 63.2 59.1 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.2 19.1 19.0 126.0 67.3 60.3 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.6 11.2 14.1 105.6 65.1 57.1 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.8 15.7 110.6 62.1 57.3 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.4 13.9 13.4 137.2 73.3 62.5 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 12.4 18.4 122.4 66.3 59.5 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.4 14.7 134.1 73.0 62.9 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.5 13.4 24.5 131.6 70.0 62.3 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.2 16.0 115.8 66.8 56.5 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 15.8 18.3 14.2 137.7 73.6 63.6 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 16.9 15.3 127.6 71.6 60.8 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.1 19.6 17.9 123.8 67.5 59.9 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.2 10.3 17.3 116.3 65.7 57.5 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.2 12.3 16.7 114.8 63.5 59.1 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.0 12.7 16.7 123.9 68.8 60.0 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.9 9.3 13.6 98.5 61.4 54.6 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.5 20.8 21.1 130.0 68.0 61.7 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.6 14.6 131.7 72.8 62.1 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------