***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9.3 15.8 18.1 148.3 75.9 66.6 3.8 8.1 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.0 14.3 17.9 165.0 79.9 72.0 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 15.7 21.1 18.5 155.3 79.8 68.5 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.5 16.5 104.3 60.9 51.9 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.6 16.0 17.2 120.5 66.5 59.4 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.9 13.4 97.4 56.7 52.2 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 12.0 16.3 17.4 158.2 79.3 70.1 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.6 17.5 19.0 122.6 66.2 60.1 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.6 14.5 17.6 131.1 70.5 61.6 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.1 17.7 19.0 129.1 69.4 62.3 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.0 17.7 121.5 66.1 59.8 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.0 14.8 17.6 123.3 66.4 59.7 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.8 17.3 111.5 62.6 57.0 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 18.9 25.7 24.0 165.9 82.8 72.9 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.5 14.6 96.5 57.8 48.9 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.3 16.6 112.3 62.5 56.6 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 14.8 20.2 18.0 173.3 81.6 73.9 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.6 17.1 21.4 144.2 75.8 66.5 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 14.4 17.7 18.4 166.8 80.5 72.3 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 16.6 22.4 125.9 69.5 61.3 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.5 17.7 18.2 140.1 73.6 63.6 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.4 19.7 18.8 174.4 81.9 74.4 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 13.5 18.3 19.8 168.9 81.1 72.5 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.3 21.1 21.2 155.4 80.0 69.4 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 8.0 13.1 18.4 128.2 68.3 60.9 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.8 15.6 103.1 57.4 53.0 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.8 15.0 18.2 139.9 71.2 64.7 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.1 15.3 102.2 60.0 51.4 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 20.0 23.6 22.2 142.3 75.5 66.2 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.5 16.2 17.9 158.5 77.6 70.1 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------