***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 5.9 5.7 6.2 1.2 67.7 65.1 4.5 5.2 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.1 5.9 1.0 63.0 62.5 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.7 6.6 1.2 67.5 64.6 5.0 6.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.2 1.5 3.7 1.3 70.5 66.4 -0.1 0.4 1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.5 4.9 1.2 70.0 65.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.9 4.4 1.4 72.1 67.2 4.6 5.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.0 5.8 1.0 63.9 62.6 3.4 4.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.6 0.9 4.4 1.1 67.5 63.7 -0.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.4 6.9 5.7 1.2 68.3 64.9 5.4 6.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.4 5.0 1.2 69.0 64.3 4.7 5.5 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.7 5.2 1.2 70.1 65.3 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 6.7 7.0 4.7 1.1 67.7 64.4 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.2 4.8 1.1 67.6 64.2 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.0 5.9 1.0 64.0 61.2 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.4 4.9 1.3 70.2 67.4 3.2 4.7 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.3 4.8 1.3 70.7 65.6 5.0 6.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.7 5.7 0.9 62.2 60.8 2.8 4.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 4.6 4.9 4.9 1.1 67.9 63.2 3.0 3.8 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 6.1 1.0 63.0 62.6 4.0 5.1 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.8 3.5 1.0 66.9 62.9 2.1 2.5 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.6 6.3 1.2 69.7 65.4 5.1 5.9 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.1 5.8 0.9 62.6 60.6 3.3 4.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.5 6.4 1.0 63.7 62.1 4.1 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.1 5.9 1.1 66.9 63.0 5.0 6.4 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.3 5.4 5.1 1.2 70.5 65.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.3 4.3 1.1 66.9 64.8 4.4 5.0 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.9 6.7 5.8 1.2 69.0 65.1 5.1 5.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.4 5.9 4.3 1.3 70.6 66.9 4.1 5.5 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 3.4 3.4 4.4 1.0 67.1 62.3 1.7 2.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.1 6.0 1.1 64.0 63.5 3.8 4.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------