***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 4.9 5.7 6.4 2.3 73.3 67.2 2.6 3.5 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.3 6.2 2.0 68.5 65.6 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.4 6.8 2.2 69.3 66.2 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.0 2.4 4.0 2.2 73.8 67.0 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 6.7 7.0 5.0 2.2 72.8 66.8 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.2 6.4 4.8 2.5 74.3 69.3 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.6 4.8 6.2 2.1 69.0 66.3 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.4 0.7 4.8 2.2 72.0 67.3 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.6 5.8 2.3 71.3 66.6 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.5 5.3 2.3 72.3 67.2 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.2 8.0 5.2 2.3 74.9 68.1 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.2 5.1 2.3 72.7 68.1 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.5 4.6 2.3 72.8 68.4 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.9 6.3 2.3 70.4 65.5 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.9 4.8 2.1 74.1 66.5 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.8 4.9 2.4 74.6 68.8 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.8 6.1 1.9 68.7 65.1 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.1 5.4 2.4 71.8 66.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.9 6.4 2.1 68.4 65.3 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 3.1 3.2 3.7 2.0 69.1 65.9 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.1 6.3 2.3 70.8 66.7 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.4 6.2 1.9 68.0 64.7 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.5 6.8 2.1 68.8 65.0 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.2 6.2 2.4 71.3 66.2 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.7 6.5 5.2 2.3 74.0 67.1 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.8 5.7 4.5 2.2 70.6 68.4 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.4 6.1 2.4 74.3 67.5 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.9 4.5 2.3 74.0 67.2 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 3.7 3.7 4.9 2.2 71.3 66.3 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 6.1 5.1 6.2 2.1 68.9 66.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------