***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.5 7.0 2.0 74.1 67.0 2.6 5.2 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.1 6.2 6.8 1.6 70.9 64.8 2.5 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.9 8.6 7.4 1.9 71.7 65.7 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.6 3.5 4.6 2.2 74.8 68.8 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 7.6 8.6 5.7 2.0 70.0 66.2 3.5 5.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 6.4 7.2 4.8 2.0 69.5 66.1 2.9 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.2 6.7 1.6 70.9 64.9 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.6 1.7 4.8 1.6 65.6 62.5 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.7 6.5 1.9 70.5 65.4 3.9 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.5 5.5 1.7 68.1 63.5 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.3 8.2 6.0 2.0 68.9 65.9 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.3 5.3 1.8 67.1 64.5 3.5 5.2 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.6 7.2 5.5 1.8 66.2 63.7 3.5 5.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.6 8.4 6.7 1.6 68.0 62.4 3.6 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.5 6.0 2.1 74.1 69.4 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.6 8.7 5.5 2.0 69.4 66.1 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.5 6.5 1.5 68.1 64.2 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.7 5.2 1.5 65.6 61.4 2.1 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.8 7.3 7.0 1.7 71.3 65.0 3.1 5.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.3 3.4 3.4 1.1 60.0 58.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.7 8.6 7.1 2.0 71.8 66.0 3.4 5.6 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.6 6.7 1.5 69.0 64.2 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.9 7.2 1.7 71.2 64.8 3.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.7 6.6 1.7 69.3 63.0 3.2 6.4 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.9 6.0 2.0 74.6 66.8 2.7 5.1 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.0 6.4 4.6 1.5 63.2 62.2 3.0 4.5 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.4 6.6 2.0 74.5 66.6 2.9 5.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.9 5.3 2.3 74.7 69.1 3.5 5.2 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 3.6 4.5 1.3 63.9 59.8 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.6 6.9 1.7 71.5 65.4 2.9 5.1 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------