***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 7.2 6.4 6.8 -0.5 43.8 43.6 4.9 6.8 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 6.7 5.0 6.4 -0.7 41.3 41.2 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 6.9 5.7 7.2 -0.4 42.9 44.8 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 3.4 1.3 4.1 -0.5 41.7 44.4 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 7.3 5.9 5.9 -0.4 41.7 44.0 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.9 6.0 5.2 -0.2 43.3 45.7 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.2 4.1 6.2 -0.7 39.4 40.7 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 2.1 0.6 5.2 -0.5 39.1 43.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 8.6 6.6 6.6 -0.5 41.4 43.9 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 7.5 5.5 5.8 -0.4 40.6 44.4 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 7.5 6.0 6.3 -0.6 40.4 43.3 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.4 5.9 5.5 -0.6 38.4 41.9 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 7.7 6.3 6.4 -0.5 39.7 42.8 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 7.4 5.6 6.5 -0.8 39.3 41.0 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 6.0 5.3 5.8 -0.3 47.7 47.7 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 7.8 6.8 5.8 -0.5 40.2 43.2 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 3.2 5.7 -1.0 36.9 37.6 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.0 5.6 -0.3 43.0 45.5 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 6.7 4.7 6.6 -0.7 41.6 41.3 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.5 4.9 0.2 47.5 49.9 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 7.5 5.8 7.3 -0.4 43.1 45.1 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.4 4.1 6.0 -1.0 37.3 37.8 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 6.8 4.6 6.6 -0.8 39.8 40.7 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 8.1 6.8 6.7 -0.5 40.9 43.5 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 5.9 5.4 6.2 -0.5 43.8 43.9 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.4 6.4 5.4 -0.3 42.9 43.8 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 7.0 6.5 6.6 -0.5 44.4 44.1 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 6.5 5.8 5.0 -0.5 43.4 45.3 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 5.5 4.4 5.2 -0.2 43.2 46.1 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 6.3 5.3 6.7 -0.6 42.9 42.8 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------