***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 -0.2 -0.2 0.8 1.1 69.1 65.4 -1.5 -1.0 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.9 63.0 63.6 -1.9 -1.4 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 68.9 65.6 -0.2 0.3 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -4.0 -3.9 -1.7 1.2 71.5 66.7 -5.9 -4.9 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 1.3 73.0 67.3 -2.1 -1.6 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 -1.4 -1.2 -2.6 1.5 72.8 70.6 -2.9 -2.1 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -0.9 0.5 0.9 64.3 63.1 -1.9 -1.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.1 -5.4 -2.5 1.4 70.4 67.5 -7.0 -6.1 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 1.2 70.4 66.5 -1.6 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 -0.7 -0.5 -2.1 1.2 69.3 66.2 -2.3 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 -0.6 -0.2 -1.4 1.4 73.8 68.1 -2.4 -1.4 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -1.0 -1.8 1.5 72.0 68.8 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.9 1.5 74.0 69.7 -2.2 -1.7 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.9 63.3 61.9 -1.2 -0.9 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 1.1 69.2 67.0 -3.1 -1.8 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 0.0 0.3 -1.8 1.4 74.3 68.7 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -0.9 -1.4 0.3 0.8 63.0 62.2 -2.1 -1.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 -2.1 -1.9 -2.7 1.2 68.7 64.7 -3.8 -2.7 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.9 63.6 64.1 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -4.6 -4.7 -3.5 1.4 70.6 67.0 -6.8 -5.8 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.2 70.1 66.9 -1.8 -1.3 -0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -1.0 0.3 0.9 64.5 63.3 -2.2 -1.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 1.0 64.3 63.9 -2.0 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 1.0 66.4 63.3 -2.5 -1.4 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.1 69.0 65.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -0.5 -1.9 1.7 74.3 70.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 0.1 -0.1 0.5 1.1 68.1 65.1 -1.6 -1.1 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 1.2 71.6 67.2 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 1.2 69.2 65.1 -4.5 -3.7 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 1.0 64.8 64.4 -1.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------