***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.9 36.3 39.5 -1.1 1.3 2.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -2.3 0.3 -0.9 33.1 36.7 -2.3 0.0 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.8 37.8 39.8 0.0 1.1 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -4.3 -1.3 -0.7 37.3 39.7 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -1.6 0.0 -0.6 40.2 42.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 46.1 46.8 -2.6 -1.3 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 0.3 -1.0 32.6 36.4 -2.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.0 -4.5 -1.6 -0.2 42.7 46.1 -5.1 -4.4 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 42.5 43.5 -1.6 0.2 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.6 -1.4 -0.4 39.7 43.5 -2.0 -1.0 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 44.1 45.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -1.6 -0.7 -0.2 46.8 47.6 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 50.7 49.7 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -1.0 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 31.7 36.6 -1.2 0.6 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 -0.6 44.4 42.7 -1.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 45.6 46.2 -1.4 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 0.1 -1.0 32.0 34.8 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.5 -1.6 -0.2 39.2 44.3 -3.1 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -1.4 0.4 -0.9 34.3 37.1 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -5.0 -5.7 -1.7 0.5 50.8 53.1 -7.0 -5.8 -2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 0.0 -1.2 0.8 -0.6 43.0 43.6 -2.0 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 0.4 -0.9 34.1 36.3 -1.8 -0.5 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 0.3 -0.8 34.0 37.0 -1.2 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -1.8 -0.7 -0.7 36.0 39.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -0.8 0.7 -0.7 38.4 41.5 -1.2 0.0 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.5 58.8 55.8 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 0.8 -0.8 38.9 41.1 -1.9 0.6 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -2.0 -0.8 -0.6 40.3 40.8 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.9 -2.1 0.0 44.3 48.1 -4.1 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 0.6 -0.9 34.7 38.0 -1.9 0.2 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------