***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 36.9 81.2 37.3 39.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.2 24.4 31.6 72.6 35.7 35.4 23.2 33.3 44.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 30.8 32.5 37.6 80.3 38.2 38.6 31.9 37.2 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 35.2 32.1 41.0 78.2 34.4 37.0 31.0 49.8 55.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 34.5 36.4 42.8 83.2 39.3 39.5 35.2 44.6 57.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 28.9 32.1 44.1 85.1 40.0 41.9 29.4 37.7 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.6 26.4 31.0 72.0 34.6 34.5 24.3 38.3 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 47.6 54.7 47.3 87.1 40.4 42.1 52.6 59.6 69.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 25.6 29.5 43.9 85.4 40.7 40.4 26.6 34.0 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 34.8 41.1 47.6 88.0 41.3 42.3 36.9 42.2 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 33.6 38.8 42.1 85.5 38.5 41.3 37.9 42.1 52.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 36.1 40.2 42.9 86.5 39.1 42.1 37.0 43.7 53.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 32.9 41.6 46.0 89.7 46.4 44.6 38.2 42.2 58.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 46.7 48.4 44.7 81.2 35.3 37.8 47.2 57.7 62.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 29.0 27.3 38.2 69.1 32.7 33.3 27.3 46.8 64.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 27.0 35.7 42.4 85.3 40.0 41.7 30.1 39.2 52.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.2 27.9 29.2 69.9 36.1 33.8 26.4 32.7 47.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 35.4 37.5 51.5 87.5 38.9 41.3 35.7 42.7 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.4 33.3 74.3 36.0 35.9 25.9 36.4 53.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 38.4 36.2 57.4 84.1 38.5 40.3 34.4 57.4 65.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 29.4 33.4 41.4 85.7 39.6 41.6 30.0 36.8 53.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 25.9 28.8 31.1 70.9 35.3 33.6 28.6 35.0 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.6 36.6 77.0 35.2 36.5 27.3 34.0 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 37.6 48.0 45.3 83.3 37.8 39.0 47.0 50.0 57.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 27.0 29.7 41.9 81.9 38.2 39.1 28.5 35.8 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.9 34.3 44.8 85.7 39.9 42.9 30.1 40.1 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.5 39.3 81.2 37.3 38.8 27.7 33.6 51.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 27.3 30.3 40.2 76.3 35.1 36.6 29.1 36.9 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 57.1 66.5 54.5 86.8 39.3 40.8 63.4 74.0 79.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.4 24.6 33.1 74.9 36.3 36.4 23.4 37.7 51.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------