***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 85.9 57.0 46.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.4 7.4 81.2 55.7 44.2 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 6.4 11.6 8.0 82.6 54.4 44.4 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.8 11.6 8.2 78.9 55.3 42.0 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 6.2 12.1 8.1 75.2 53.0 41.6 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.4 10.1 7.8 69.1 48.2 39.6 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.9 7.2 81.1 54.3 44.4 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.2 14.0 8.9 72.4 45.8 39.9 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.3 8.3 75.2 51.2 41.5 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 7.0 8.9 73.1 47.0 40.3 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.4 7.7 71.4 47.0 40.4 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.0 8.5 7.9 72.0 47.1 40.7 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.2 7.9 70.8 48.6 41.3 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.5 11.6 9.3 80.3 47.0 41.9 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 7.1 7.9 78.2 57.7 41.6 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.2 7.6 71.9 49.5 41.4 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.4 7.4 81.5 53.4 43.9 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.6 9.9 75.8 46.3 40.5 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 10.2 7.6 80.4 54.6 43.6 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.7 10.4 11.8 77.7 48.1 40.4 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.4 10.6 8.3 82.6 54.9 44.3 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.5 7.8 82.5 53.0 43.7 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.5 7.9 79.2 50.8 42.7 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.1 9.1 9.0 77.6 47.1 41.6 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.2 11.4 8.7 84.2 55.6 44.8 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 6.9 7.2 63.0 45.4 36.7 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 12.3 8.3 84.2 56.2 45.5 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.6 8.0 77.6 57.2 41.8 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.2 14.0 10.6 76.3 46.6 40.2 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.5 7.5 81.8 55.8 44.8 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------