***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.3 65.5 44.1 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 4.3 6.3 55.9 39.7 35.9 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.4 7.7 7.2 62.9 42.8 36.6 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 7.2 10.8 7.7 65.9 47.5 36.6 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.1 12.0 8.1 69.7 45.0 37.5 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.9 12.2 9.2 70.6 46.8 37.7 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.7 4.7 6.3 57.6 38.7 36.7 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 9.0 16.1 8.9 68.2 39.5 35.6 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.0 8.7 8.4 70.1 44.9 37.8 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 6.1 11.2 8.9 69.9 41.8 36.6 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.6 10.1 7.9 69.4 45.0 36.7 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.6 9.5 8.1 69.3 43.7 36.3 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 6.9 12.2 8.9 72.0 45.3 37.3 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.0 7.9 8.2 58.9 37.9 34.3 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.6 9.0 6.9 56.7 48.3 35.0 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.2 12.8 8.2 71.0 47.1 37.6 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.7 6.1 55.6 41.0 37.2 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 6.6 9.6 66.8 39.4 35.5 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.7 6.4 56.2 40.6 35.3 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 5.9 8.9 11.0 63.4 38.3 34.9 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.3 10.3 7.9 69.2 44.3 38.3 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.8 3.6 6.2 54.1 39.3 35.4 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.0 6.9 57.3 40.1 34.8 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.2 7.6 8.4 63.6 41.1 35.5 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.3 9.3 8.1 68.1 45.5 38.3 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.9 12.4 8.0 64.4 43.4 35.7 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.8 9.1 7.8 66.8 44.6 38.7 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 5.5 11.0 7.6 64.5 48.1 36.6 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 8.4 13.7 10.1 64.5 38.9 34.6 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.3 5.2 6.5 58.7 40.6 36.4 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------