***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 90.3 53.5 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.9 8.7 81.4 51.9 44.7 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.4 6.4 10.0 84.8 51.5 47.3 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.1 9.4 71.6 49.3 43.3 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.7 10.7 81.5 50.0 46.7 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.6 11.1 84.6 53.0 45.3 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.8 8.7 80.9 48.9 44.8 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.4 14.6 11.5 86.0 53.7 46.3 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.8 11.6 87.6 54.6 48.6 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.7 12.4 91.6 56.5 49.7 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.7 10.1 83.1 51.2 46.2 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.6 10.0 81.7 51.3 45.0 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.3 11.2 88.4 51.7 46.5 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.5 12.6 12.3 91.5 55.0 49.0 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.5 8.2 56.9 42.9 35.4 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.7 9.8 79.7 49.4 44.6 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.6 7.9 79.0 51.9 43.9 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.0 14.1 97.5 56.1 51.3 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 7.6 9.0 82.7 53.2 45.4 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 12.3 14.9 91.2 53.3 46.4 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 11.0 88.8 55.0 49.0 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.4 8.6 80.5 55.4 43.9 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.5 9.9 85.0 53.9 46.5 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.3 12.3 91.5 54.4 49.7 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.0 11.5 89.7 54.0 48.8 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.2 10.5 82.8 52.7 43.7 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.8 5.3 11.2 92.6 53.4 49.6 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.7 8.3 61.4 44.6 38.6 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.5 15.0 98.3 56.3 50.6 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.1 9.1 82.7 50.4 45.4 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------