***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 83.1 46.0 45.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.8 7.5 9.2 73.9 45.9 42.4 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.7 12.5 89.1 52.8 48.3 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.3 15.7 91.2 53.0 49.0 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.4 14.8 16.0 99.9 57.5 51.8 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.3 7.3 16.1 111.1 61.5 57.6 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.6 6.0 8.8 70.4 46.2 41.4 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 12.1 17.0 18.1 115.4 61.8 58.2 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.5 11.3 15.6 103.1 61.1 53.3 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 14.9 17.4 111.5 61.7 56.7 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 8.7 9.9 16.3 110.5 59.8 55.8 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.5 14.3 16.9 115.4 62.1 58.7 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.0 12.2 18.1 118.9 64.5 60.9 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.1 12.3 14.9 92.2 53.3 48.4 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.3 5.2 15.3 82.2 53.3 47.1 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.7 7.7 16.7 110.4 60.4 57.0 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.1 5.6 7.8 66.4 44.5 39.2 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.7 13.8 17.9 105.6 60.1 54.8 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 7.7 10.2 78.8 47.3 43.8 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 10.9 10.8 19.7 101.7 55.2 53.4 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.5 14.2 98.3 56.9 51.5 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.6 7.2 8.6 69.2 43.6 39.4 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.6 7.7 12.0 85.5 50.5 45.9 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.5 13.9 15.5 97.0 58.1 51.3 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.7 6.5 13.6 84.3 52.5 45.9 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 7.5 11.2 19.1 121.4 64.7 62.9 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 5.9 11.9 81.3 49.0 44.6 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 5.9 16.2 96.1 57.3 51.6 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.7 18.8 104.5 59.4 54.4 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.9 7.5 10.1 77.2 47.3 43.8 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------