***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.4 -2.1 19.0 27.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.1 2.3 -1.8 21.8 29.5 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.6 2.2 -2.2 18.5 26.3 5.0 6.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -0.7 -0.8 -0.1 -2.2 20.8 26.0 -0.1 0.4 1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 4.1 3.8 0.5 -2.4 19.5 24.6 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 3.6 3.2 0.3 -2.2 18.2 26.1 4.6 5.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.8 3.0 2.3 -1.8 21.6 29.7 3.4 4.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 -1.4 -1.9 0.1 -2.5 14.9 22.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 4.5 4.3 1.4 -2.3 19.2 25.8 5.4 6.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 3.9 3.4 0.6 -2.6 14.9 23.4 4.7 5.5 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 3.7 3.3 0.4 -2.5 16.4 23.4 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 4.1 3.6 0.3 -2.6 14.7 22.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.8 3.2 0.3 -2.5 15.5 22.9 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 4.1 3.7 1.3 -2.7 15.9 23.3 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.9 0.8 -1.8 25.2 29.4 3.2 4.7 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 4.5 3.9 0.2 -2.5 15.6 23.4 5.0 6.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.4 2.4 -1.5 25.0 33.2 2.8 4.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.0 0.3 -2.8 12.6 21.5 3.0 3.8 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.2 -2.0 21.5 28.5 4.0 5.1 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 1.3 0.6 -0.9 -2.6 13.7 22.1 2.1 2.5 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.8 4.0 1.9 -2.2 19.7 26.7 5.1 5.9 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.1 2.5 -1.4 26.6 33.5 3.3 4.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.1 -2.2 20.2 26.6 4.1 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 4.3 4.0 1.3 -2.7 15.3 23.0 5.0 6.4 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.2 3.4 1.0 -2.1 19.5 26.5 4.0 4.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 3.6 3.0 0.3 -2.3 14.9 23.5 4.4 5.0 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.8 1.8 -2.1 19.1 26.7 5.1 5.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.6 3.0 0.3 -2.1 22.7 27.2 4.1 5.5 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 12.8 21.1 1.7 2.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.2 3.3 2.3 -2.0 20.7 28.1 3.8 4.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------