***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.3 -0.1 44.9 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.8 1.9 -0.2 41.5 50.0 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.8 2.3 -0.1 45.7 50.5 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 49.2 50.8 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.5 0.9 0.1 51.0 51.4 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.5 51.9 53.9 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.1 1.8 -0.2 41.1 49.7 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -0.7 0.9 0.2 53.1 52.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.0 1.9 0.2 52.4 52.3 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.1 1.4 0.2 52.9 52.4 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.6 1.0 0.2 51.6 52.0 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 1.0 0.2 52.4 52.0 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.8 0.8 0.2 50.9 52.3 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.0 2.1 -0.1 50.2 50.8 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.2 0.8 0.3 51.2 52.2 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.7 0.7 0.2 52.2 52.1 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.3 1.9 -0.1 42.0 50.6 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.1 1.3 0.1 49.8 51.8 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.1 2.1 -0.2 41.7 50.1 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.0 0.1 0.2 51.3 53.2 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.7 2.2 0.1 51.5 51.5 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.9 2.1 -0.1 43.5 50.8 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.3 2.3 -0.2 42.1 50.3 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.2 2.0 0.0 49.2 51.1 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 48.5 51.6 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.6 0.7 0.3 51.1 52.1 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.2 1.7 -0.1 44.9 50.7 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.6 0.6 0.2 51.7 51.6 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.1 49.4 51.7 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.7 2.0 -0.2 41.6 49.8 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------