***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.4 -2.4 24.7 30.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.7 1.3 2.6 -1.8 25.6 33.2 2.5 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.6 2.4 -2.4 23.6 30.7 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -2.5 -2.8 0.1 -2.5 24.1 29.3 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.0 1.5 0.4 -2.7 22.1 28.5 3.5 5.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.1 -0.2 -3.0 20.5 28.6 2.9 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.0 0.9 2.5 -1.9 25.7 33.1 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -3.2 -4.0 -0.3 -3.1 18.1 26.7 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.2 2.4 1.3 -2.6 23.2 30.0 3.9 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.1 0.3 -3.0 19.5 27.7 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 1.8 1.2 0.2 -2.9 20.3 27.3 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 1.8 0.8 0.0 -3.2 17.1 26.0 3.5 5.2 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.5 0.3 -0.3 -3.4 14.9 25.3 3.5 5.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.2 -2.9 19.7 27.7 3.6 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.9 3.1 0.9 -1.9 27.3 33.2 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.1 1.0 -0.1 -3.0 19.0 26.7 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.2 2.8 -1.3 30.2 37.1 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 0.2 -0.9 -0.2 -3.4 17.4 26.0 2.1 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.7 2.5 -2.0 24.4 32.2 3.1 5.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -0.5 -1.7 -1.7 -3.6 15.5 25.5 1.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.4 1.9 -2.4 24.5 31.0 3.4 5.6 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.6 2.8 -1.4 30.5 37.3 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.9 2.3 -2.3 22.9 30.2 3.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 1.9 1.1 1.1 -3.0 19.9 27.7 3.2 6.4 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.4 0.8 -2.6 23.1 29.1 2.7 5.1 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 1.5 0.4 -0.3 -3.5 12.4 23.7 3.0 4.5 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.9 1.6 -2.6 22.8 29.2 2.9 5.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.9 2.6 0.5 -2.2 25.4 31.2 3.5 5.2 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 -0.8 -1.7 -0.9 -3.6 16.4 25.0 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 1.5 1.2 2.5 -2.1 24.4 31.8 2.9 5.1 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------