***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.0 -3.6 16.8 18.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 1.8 2.4 2.8 -3.2 20.9 20.9 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 2.7 2.2 2.3 -4.2 13.6 14.5 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 -3.2 -3.9 -0.2 -4.2 12.7 13.3 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 2.1 1.4 0.5 -4.8 10.0 11.8 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 2.2 1.1 0.5 -4.4 13.2 15.7 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.1 -3.0 21.0 22.0 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -0.1 -5.1 6.9 9.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 3.0 2.0 1.3 -4.8 10.0 11.6 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 2.1 1.3 0.3 -5.2 6.7 9.2 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 2.1 1.3 0.4 -5.0 8.5 10.8 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 1.8 1.0 0.3 -4.9 8.1 10.6 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 2.7 1.2 1.0 -4.6 10.8 14.3 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 3.2 2.3 0.9 -5.4 8.4 9.4 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 2.2 2.2 1.2 -3.7 15.6 14.9 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 2.6 1.3 0.4 -4.8 11.1 12.7 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.2 -2.5 27.5 26.2 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 1.7 0.0 -0.1 -5.6 5.9 8.0 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 1.6 1.3 2.6 -3.6 19.3 18.6 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 -0.8 -2.0 -0.9 -4.9 6.6 9.2 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 2.5 2.0 2.0 -4.4 12.6 14.3 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 2.5 3.5 3.1 -2.5 27.9 26.0 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 2.1 1.9 2.0 -4.2 15.2 14.3 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 3.3 1.8 0.8 -5.4 6.7 8.8 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.7 -3.9 15.6 16.5 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 3.5 2.9 1.2 -3.8 13.0 17.0 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 2.4 2.2 2.7 -3.6 16.6 18.2 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 2.4 2.2 0.3 -4.3 13.6 13.5 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 0.4 -2.2 -0.5 -5.3 6.8 8.5 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 1.7 1.4 2.8 -3.5 18.5 18.7 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------