***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.5 -2.6 21.7 31.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -3.5 -2.3 22.3 33.0 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -1.8 -2.4 -3.9 -2.6 18.3 31.1 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -8.1 -9.3 -7.1 -3.2 15.4 27.8 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 -4.4 -5.3 -6.8 -3.4 16.1 26.9 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 -5.1 -5.9 -8.5 -3.9 16.2 27.4 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -3.8 -4.7 -3.5 -2.3 22.7 32.9 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -9.9 -10.7 -8.3 -4.0 15.8 25.0 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 -3.8 -4.2 -5.7 -3.1 19.2 28.7 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -4.4 -5.1 -7.4 -3.7 17.5 26.1 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -4.0 -5.4 -7.3 -3.8 14.6 25.9 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 -4.8 -6.3 -8.1 -4.3 14.2 24.1 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 -4.3 -5.3 -8.3 -4.3 15.2 24.9 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 -3.7 -4.3 -6.2 -3.3 17.4 26.6 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 -4.6 -5.4 -6.0 -2.8 18.4 31.1 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 -3.0 -3.9 -8.0 -4.0 13.3 25.6 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.0 28.0 34.6 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 -7.5 -7.4 -8.0 -3.8 18.3 25.4 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -3.8 -4.5 -3.7 -2.4 19.8 32.3 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 -10.9 -10.8 -8.9 -3.5 21.9 27.4 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -3.8 -4.7 -4.5 -2.8 20.6 30.3 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -2.0 27.2 34.5 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -4.1 -5.2 -4.3 -2.6 17.3 30.7 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 -4.1 -4.8 -6.2 -3.3 18.1 27.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -4.3 -5.6 -2.9 19.1 29.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 -4.1 -4.7 -7.6 -4.0 16.0 24.9 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -4.3 -4.5 -2.7 21.4 30.5 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 -5.6 -7.0 -6.9 -3.2 15.5 28.8 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 -7.1 -7.4 -8.4 -3.7 21.0 25.9 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -3.6 -2.4 20.6 32.2 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------