***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 20.3 28.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -1.4 -2.4 24.1 26.5 -2.3 0.0 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 -0.7 -1.6 -1.6 -2.7 14.9 23.0 0.0 1.1 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -7.4 -8.2 -4.0 -2.8 15.0 20.4 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 -2.7 -3.2 -3.4 -2.9 16.1 22.2 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -3.8 -1.8 24.5 31.3 -2.6 -1.3 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -2.1 -2.8 -1.2 -2.2 23.8 26.6 -2.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 -8.3 -9.0 -4.9 -3.3 16.8 20.4 -5.1 -4.4 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 -2.3 -3.0 -2.9 -2.8 16.3 22.9 -1.6 0.2 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 -2.9 -3.2 -4.4 -3.3 16.2 20.3 -2.0 -1.0 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -3.8 -3.0 16.6 22.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 -3.9 -4.8 -4.2 -3.1 17.7 22.4 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 -3.3 -2.0 24.6 31.3 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 -1.8 -2.6 -4.0 -3.7 8.9 15.5 -1.2 0.6 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 -2.7 -3.8 -2.8 -2.8 14.5 21.6 -1.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -3.8 -2.6 19.1 24.6 -1.4 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.1 -1.8 30.3 30.8 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 -4.5 -4.8 -5.1 -3.4 15.6 19.3 -3.1 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -2.5 21.3 25.3 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 -7.8 -8.1 -5.8 -3.0 21.5 22.6 -7.0 -5.8 -2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 -2.4 -3.1 -1.6 -2.3 18.8 26.2 -2.0 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -2.3 -1.0 -1.7 29.3 31.8 -1.8 -0.5 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -2.8 16.6 21.9 -1.2 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 -2.7 -3.0 -4.0 -3.5 11.6 16.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.0 22.0 28.2 -1.2 0.0 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -2.3 -2.7 -1.9 27.9 32.9 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -3.1 -1.0 -1.9 23.6 29.9 -1.9 0.6 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 -4.1 -4.7 -3.6 -2.9 15.1 19.7 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 -5.9 -6.2 -5.4 -3.2 16.9 20.2 -4.1 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 -1.3 -2.5 20.8 25.2 -1.9 0.2 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------