***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 39.9 41.5 52.8 110.5 60.4 57.5 24.3 32.3 50.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 39.6 43.5 51.1 115.5 63.9 60.1 21.9 35.1 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.1 56.8 52.7 109.6 60.7 56.7 34.3 38.8 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 55.2 54.1 63.1 109.9 60.2 57.2 31.4 50.2 57.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 54.5 54.9 58.8 107.9 59.4 56.4 35.4 50.3 59.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 41.3 49.1 60.4 110.3 63.2 58.7 29.7 36.9 50.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 43.7 48.9 50.6 116.2 63.4 60.4 23.2 38.7 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 65.8 61.2 59.1 103.2 52.9 52.2 51.7 58.6 77.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 40.5 38.6 55.5 104.0 56.0 53.5 26.0 36.6 50.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 49.9 45.3 58.5 104.4 54.2 53.2 39.4 43.8 50.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 47.5 47.1 55.1 106.2 58.3 54.7 37.7 41.3 56.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.3 54.9 54.0 102.9 54.8 52.6 37.7 46.0 59.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 52.4 50.2 56.7 104.1 54.9 54.7 39.3 48.4 60.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 61.8 59.0 58.3 106.1 55.5 55.7 46.5 58.1 62.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 58.7 70.4 72.3 118.5 67.3 61.0 32.0 50.1 69.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.6 50.5 55.7 106.2 56.8 55.3 30.9 47.4 57.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 39.2 42.7 50.5 119.9 64.0 62.0 26.4 34.7 44.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 47.2 45.9 62.2 104.6 53.7 53.5 36.7 44.3 56.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 41.7 51.9 51.5 113.3 64.3 59.0 28.9 36.4 54.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 65.1 62.8 74.4 102.4 53.8 51.8 33.7 61.4 71.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 45.0 44.1 53.1 104.6 56.8 53.6 31.5 38.6 57.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 41.2 47.2 51.4 115.4 65.1 60.1 28.2 36.3 47.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 42.9 50.8 52.6 110.5 63.2 57.5 28.1 38.3 51.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 55.3 52.6 57.4 105.8 55.5 55.1 43.3 51.0 53.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 42.7 52.4 59.6 108.7 59.2 56.7 30.8 37.6 58.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 44.6 42.1 58.1 101.4 55.4 52.8 30.1 41.0 57.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 43.3 39.4 56.0 109.8 60.5 57.5 27.9 34.3 58.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 47.3 55.2 65.8 114.3 64.2 59.1 31.1 39.9 55.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 77.6 76.0 66.6 105.1 54.3 54.0 63.8 74.4 89.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 44.2 50.3 51.4 113.6 64.5 59.2 23.0 39.3 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------