***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.8 7.7 91.6 56.5 50.6 3.5 5.5 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.9 7.6 91.2 57.2 49.4 5.2 7.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.9 10.8 7.8 90.8 55.5 48.9 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.4 9.1 97.1 58.7 50.6 4.3 6.6 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.2 13.4 8.9 96.9 56.4 50.0 8.6 12.1 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.2 11.7 9.9 98.1 59.8 50.1 5.6 10.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.5 7.6 90.1 59.9 49.0 4.8 7.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.7 16.8 9.4 94.2 56.2 49.9 11.1 14.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.6 9.0 94.6 53.7 49.3 4.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.5 9.4 94.8 53.8 49.6 5.1 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.9 10.0 8.7 97.5 54.9 50.3 6.8 9.1 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.3 8.6 95.2 58.5 50.1 6.7 9.8 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.0 9.2 94.4 54.8 50.1 5.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.3 13.7 8.9 90.1 54.5 48.3 9.4 12.5 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.5 9.4 94.5 60.1 51.2 2.0 4.4 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.5 8.8 95.6 56.5 49.9 5.6 8.7 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.9 7.6 91.0 59.8 48.6 6.4 9.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.6 9.8 92.8 52.5 48.8 5.3 8.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.3 7.7 92.1 55.6 49.7 6.0 8.8 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 10.4 11.3 87.9 51.3 48.4 5.8 10.2 15.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.2 8.3 93.9 55.9 49.3 6.3 10.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.5 8.1 94.8 57.3 49.6 6.0 9.9 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.5 7.9 93.7 56.4 49.9 5.3 8.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.5 8.9 92.1 53.4 48.3 5.8 9.0 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.8 12.9 9.0 97.1 59.1 50.3 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.2 9.0 8.9 88.9 54.2 49.4 5.9 8.2 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.5 8.5 94.4 58.7 50.4 3.5 6.5 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.5 9.4 96.5 59.8 50.7 2.8 5.2 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.9 15.2 10.2 89.0 53.8 48.3 11.5 14.6 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.1 7.5 89.6 56.2 49.2 4.7 7.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------