***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.0 10.6 99.2 60.3 52.2 5.9 8.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.4 11.0 113.3 62.8 56.5 4.2 6.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.6 15.4 10.9 105.2 59.9 53.3 6.3 9.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.3 13.4 12.2 98.7 58.0 50.8 8.0 10.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.6 15.9 11.8 101.7 61.5 51.4 6.7 11.6 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.0 12.9 101.4 61.1 52.3 4.9 11.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.4 10.9 112.0 62.3 56.0 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.1 21.9 13.5 107.8 66.1 53.3 12.4 17.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.4 11.4 98.7 60.5 49.9 6.3 8.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.5 18.0 12.8 104.5 64.1 51.4 8.9 12.8 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.0 16.1 11.9 105.6 66.1 52.8 5.7 10.8 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.5 16.1 12.1 105.4 65.3 53.4 8.2 12.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 7.2 19.9 12.6 102.6 59.8 53.1 7.1 13.6 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.4 17.1 13.7 118.1 64.5 55.6 8.5 14.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 17.2 13.0 96.6 60.5 51.1 3.8 10.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.9 12.0 104.4 64.3 53.1 5.4 11.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.2 11.3 119.4 64.1 57.9 4.2 8.4 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 13.1 14.0 106.6 62.1 51.6 8.0 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.6 11.2 115.3 62.8 56.9 4.0 7.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 19.6 18.0 110.7 63.7 54.3 7.1 15.0 20.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.6 12.2 11.0 99.2 62.8 50.7 6.8 10.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.1 11.6 118.6 63.5 57.0 3.8 6.5 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.0 11.9 120.5 63.4 57.6 3.7 6.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.4 14.8 12.7 109.4 61.9 52.9 6.2 11.4 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.2 11.8 97.0 58.8 51.3 3.1 9.5 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.6 12.5 97.1 57.3 50.9 5.2 12.7 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 11.2 97.2 58.8 51.9 4.5 8.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.8 15.2 12.6 100.8 60.9 51.7 5.0 10.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.8 23.1 15.5 110.5 64.3 52.9 15.3 20.4 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.4 10.7 107.9 60.2 55.1 4.8 7.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------