***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.5 10.2 73.3 49.4 41.0 1.2 3.5 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.0 9.1 72.1 51.7 39.7 1.6 5.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.5 10.2 71.8 49.5 40.2 3.6 5.5 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 6.7 11.4 71.8 48.0 40.5 5.3 7.3 11.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.2 12.1 78.1 48.9 42.5 6.2 8.3 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.0 13.9 91.6 53.0 47.5 2.1 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.1 8.9 71.4 51.4 39.4 2.8 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 13.8 13.4 81.4 48.7 43.3 9.4 13.9 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.6 11.4 73.2 47.0 40.0 3.9 5.6 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.1 12.9 78.7 48.2 42.2 5.5 7.2 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.8 6.5 11.6 79.7 49.4 43.0 4.1 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.3 11.8 79.8 47.1 43.0 4.6 7.1 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.8 12.7 85.3 52.3 45.5 3.7 7.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.8 71.4 48.2 40.0 5.1 11.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.2 13.1 77.1 51.7 43.3 1.8 3.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.7 5.8 12.0 83.0 51.2 44.6 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.0 8.4 71.7 50.5 40.0 2.8 6.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.7 14.2 79.3 46.3 42.8 4.5 6.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.4 9.4 71.0 50.0 39.2 2.6 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 9.3 17.7 84.5 52.6 44.7 5.8 8.4 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.7 10.3 69.2 46.5 38.9 3.5 7.6 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.4 8.9 71.6 49.4 39.0 3.4 6.4 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.5 9.9 69.5 47.3 38.9 5.2 7.8 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.9 6.7 11.8 71.3 45.4 39.7 4.7 7.1 16.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.3 12.2 77.1 49.0 41.7 3.5 5.7 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 6.8 12.9 86.6 51.9 46.8 5.1 6.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.3 11.2 75.3 49.0 40.6 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.7 4.6 12.5 77.7 50.2 42.9 2.0 4.5 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 13.6 15.7 82.7 49.9 44.1 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.3 9.6 73.3 51.7 40.0 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------