***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.0 20.7 24.2 165.2 76.8 72.2 3.8 6.2 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 13.8 21.0 23.3 173.2 83.8 73.8 1.8 7.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.3 21.4 23.8 159.9 78.8 70.8 3.7 10.9 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 15.4 19.0 30.4 153.5 77.9 72.3 4.3 7.6 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.5 19.3 26.0 142.7 75.4 68.6 2.7 8.4 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 10.6 11.5 23.8 141.1 73.6 67.9 1.1 4.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 15.8 22.6 23.2 180.1 85.2 75.3 1.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.7 20.1 22.9 124.2 65.1 61.6 4.8 12.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.5 23.8 141.3 73.6 67.1 0.8 7.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.9 16.4 23.4 133.5 69.5 64.3 1.6 7.7 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 17.1 16.3 22.9 133.9 70.7 65.1 1.1 9.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.2 19.2 21.5 124.9 66.8 62.3 1.5 6.6 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.0 14.1 22.2 126.4 65.6 63.1 2.3 7.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 19.7 21.0 23.9 141.1 72.6 67.5 5.3 13.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 25.4 37.4 36.8 178.6 82.2 77.5 1.5 5.6 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.0 17.0 22.8 132.5 70.1 65.4 1.9 5.2 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 14.4 24.4 23.2 184.1 84.8 75.9 1.5 5.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 15.8 16.5 24.2 135.3 70.9 65.1 2.6 13.4 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 13.6 19.0 23.2 164.0 81.0 71.7 3.0 7.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 12.8 15.1 27.4 121.5 62.3 60.4 2.8 10.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.1 19.6 23.4 147.7 75.3 68.2 3.2 10.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 16.9 24.6 22.7 166.3 80.8 72.8 1.7 6.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 11.9 14.6 22.9 152.2 78.1 69.1 3.5 8.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 17.3 20.9 24.0 145.6 75.0 68.2 2.2 9.4 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 13.7 17.5 26.6 151.5 76.6 70.4 4.3 6.5 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 5.9 13.7 23.8 122.1 67.4 62.6 1.6 3.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.9 20.5 25.0 161.6 76.9 71.9 3.6 6.0 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 17.7 23.4 31.4 162.5 79.3 74.1 0.9 5.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 20.3 21.2 25.2 133.3 69.9 64.5 5.9 13.4 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.8 20.0 23.6 170.6 83.6 73.4 2.8 8.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------