***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.1 3.7 -0.5 41.6 43.5 4.4 5.4 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 4.8 4.0 3.6 -0.1 43.5 47.1 3.6 4.7 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 6.3 5.7 3.7 -0.5 41.6 43.7 5.3 6.1 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -0.5 0.0 0.6 -1.3 32.3 34.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.3 1.7 -1.0 37.9 38.1 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.9 1.7 -0.6 41.8 41.7 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.6 4.1 3.6 -0.1 44.1 47.9 3.6 4.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.2 -0.4 2.1 -0.3 46.7 45.7 -0.7 -0.2 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.2 2.8 -0.7 41.7 41.6 5.5 6.5 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 2.5 -0.5 44.1 43.7 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.5 1.8 -0.9 39.3 38.6 5.2 5.6 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.5 2.2 -0.5 44.2 43.1 5.0 6.0 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.3 2.3 -0.5 42.7 43.5 4.7 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.9 3.6 -0.2 47.8 48.3 5.2 6.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.5 0.9 -1.5 29.8 32.3 3.7 4.6 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.2 5.3 1.6 -1.0 37.0 38.4 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 4.3 3.6 3.5 0.0 44.8 49.1 3.1 4.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.9 2.7 -0.2 48.7 47.5 3.3 3.9 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 5.4 4.8 3.7 -0.2 43.6 46.7 4.2 5.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.7 1.7 0.2 51.1 51.8 2.1 2.5 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.7 3.2 -0.7 40.6 41.2 5.3 6.0 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 4.7 4.3 3.6 0.0 45.8 49.4 3.6 4.4 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.4 4.7 3.8 -0.2 45.2 47.1 4.2 5.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.3 3.4 -0.3 46.4 46.3 5.1 6.4 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.2 2.0 -0.8 39.1 39.8 4.1 4.8 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 2.4 -0.2 45.1 47.0 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.5 3.1 -0.5 42.4 43.4 5.0 5.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.8 4.0 0.8 -1.5 30.7 33.2 4.3 5.5 6.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.0 2.4 0.0 50.7 50.7 1.7 3.0 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 5.0 4.4 3.7 -0.2 42.9 46.0 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------