***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.5 3.8 0.9 52.6 56.5 2.3 3.3 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.2 3.7 1.2 57.6 59.4 1.8 3.3 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.2 4.0 1.0 55.2 56.8 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.4 50.9 52.7 -1.3 0.2 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.3 2.0 0.5 51.4 53.2 2.5 4.2 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.0 1.6 0.4 51.5 52.3 1.9 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.8 5.2 3.6 1.2 57.7 59.4 1.1 3.1 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -0.4 2.2 0.6 56.8 54.5 -2.4 -0.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.6 3.1 0.6 53.6 54.2 2.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.9 2.7 0.7 57.2 54.5 2.5 5.1 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 2.1 0.5 51.9 52.9 2.7 5.3 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.8 2.2 0.5 52.3 53.5 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 1.9 0.4 49.5 52.6 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 7.8 7.3 3.9 1.1 61.2 58.4 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.3 51.6 52.0 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.5 1.7 0.4 49.4 52.3 3.0 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.6 5.1 3.6 1.3 58.5 60.7 1.7 2.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 4.0 3.0 0.9 58.7 56.7 0.6 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.6 3.9 1.2 57.5 59.1 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.9 58.5 57.4 -0.5 1.5 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.3 3.4 0.7 52.8 55.1 3.0 4.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 5.4 3.7 1.3 58.7 61.1 2.2 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.8 4.1 1.2 58.9 58.7 2.4 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.6 3.7 0.9 58.5 57.0 3.0 5.9 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.8 2.2 0.7 53.0 55.1 2.0 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.5 1.8 0.5 50.2 52.8 2.4 4.5 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.4 3.2 0.9 54.2 56.4 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.9 1.3 0.3 50.3 51.9 2.2 3.8 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.0 58.2 57.7 -0.4 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.8 3.8 1.2 57.4 58.5 1.8 3.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------