***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.0 3.1 -1.1 33.3 39.5 2.9 6.0 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.7 3.4 3.1 -0.8 33.2 41.7 3.4 5.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.2 3.2 -1.0 35.5 40.7 3.8 6.0 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -2.3 -2.1 0.4 -1.7 26.5 33.7 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.6 3.2 1.2 -1.4 31.0 36.9 3.4 6.3 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.1 1.0 -1.1 35.0 40.3 3.0 5.2 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.7 3.0 -0.8 33.0 41.5 2.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -1.0 1.4 -1.0 37.6 41.5 -1.8 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.8 2.2 -1.2 33.1 39.5 3.8 7.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.2 1.8 -1.0 35.7 41.0 2.7 5.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.3 1.4 -1.3 33.7 37.9 3.1 6.3 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.5 1.6 -1.1 35.4 39.9 3.1 5.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.6 1.4 -1.2 33.8 40.0 3.5 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.7 2.8 -0.8 39.2 43.2 3.8 6.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.5 2.4 0.5 -1.9 24.0 31.5 3.5 4.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.6 1.1 -1.4 32.2 37.3 3.7 6.9 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.8 2.9 -0.7 35.2 42.6 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.7 1.8 -0.8 39.7 43.1 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.8 3.2 -0.8 34.5 41.8 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.7 0.6 -0.6 42.5 44.8 1.6 2.9 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.7 2.6 -1.2 33.1 39.1 3.7 6.4 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.1 3.0 -0.7 36.6 42.8 3.7 5.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.3 3.3 -0.8 36.5 42.1 3.9 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.2 2.7 -0.9 38.2 42.4 3.9 6.6 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.0 1.4 -1.4 28.7 37.0 2.3 5.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.1 1.6 -1.1 36.6 40.7 4.0 4.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 2.9 2.4 -1.2 31.3 39.0 3.3 6.2 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.3 0.5 -1.8 26.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.1 1.4 -0.7 41.7 44.4 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.1 -0.9 33.5 41.0 2.9 5.3 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------