***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.5 -3.0 19.5 21.0 4.4 7.3 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.8 2.3 3.5 -2.5 20.5 23.3 3.0 6.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 3.4 2.9 3.2 -3.2 18.5 20.5 4.4 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 -3.1 -3.9 -0.6 -4.3 12.0 13.8 -0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 2.3 1.9 1.0 -4.0 15.3 17.1 4.7 6.9 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.6 3.9 2.0 -2.8 24.3 26.5 4.8 6.7 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.5 3.8 -2.2 23.1 25.1 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 2.4 -2.2 26.0 29.6 0.7 1.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 3.5 3.1 2.2 -3.6 17.6 19.1 5.7 7.9 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 3.7 3.2 2.2 -3.0 20.3 24.2 4.8 7.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 2.8 2.3 1.4 -3.8 16.1 19.3 5.5 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.5 2.5 -2.5 22.6 27.6 6.2 7.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.2 3.6 3.3 -2.2 24.0 30.1 6.3 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.4 4.1 3.3 -2.6 23.9 26.6 4.4 7.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 2.0 1.0 0.6 -4.3 9.1 12.5 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.9 1.5 -3.6 17.2 20.8 6.1 8.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.5 -2.1 22.1 25.8 3.6 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.7 -2.4 24.9 28.4 3.0 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 2.7 1.9 3.4 -2.6 21.1 23.1 3.3 7.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.2 2.6 -1.1 41.4 38.5 1.9 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 2.7 2.4 2.6 -3.6 16.7 18.6 4.5 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.1 2.6 3.4 -2.2 23.5 26.1 3.6 6.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.2 3.4 -2.6 22.7 24.3 3.6 6.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.9 4.3 3.1 -2.9 21.2 24.8 6.4 8.3 9.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 2.9 2.8 1.9 -3.5 17.0 19.0 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.5 4.1 -0.9 37.8 39.3 5.3 7.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 3.3 3.3 3.3 -2.9 20.6 22.0 4.7 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 3.0 1.7 -0.1 -4.6 10.6 13.3 4.2 6.4 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.2 2.9 -1.6 33.8 34.1 2.1 5.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.6 -2.6 20.1 22.6 3.4 6.4 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------