***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 0.0 43.3 48.5 -1.4 -0.9 0.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 0.3 46.4 51.8 -1.8 -1.5 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.1 42.5 48.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.5 -5.7 -4.6 -1.0 35.4 37.3 -5.8 -4.9 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.9 -3.7 -0.6 40.3 40.9 -2.0 -1.5 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -2.2 -4.3 -0.1 44.5 47.1 -2.6 -2.1 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 -1.1 -1.6 -0.7 0.4 48.0 52.9 -2.0 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -5.8 -6.2 -3.6 0.2 47.7 50.7 -6.8 -6.1 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -1.4 -2.5 -0.2 43.8 45.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.9 -3.2 0.1 46.1 48.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -2.1 -3.6 -0.5 39.5 42.3 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -2.6 -3.3 0.0 43.1 47.9 -2.9 -1.9 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -1.8 -3.4 0.1 44.7 49.1 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.8 -2.1 0.5 51.5 54.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.7 -4.0 -1.1 34.0 35.4 -2.7 -1.8 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -1.4 -4.0 -0.5 39.5 42.5 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -1.4 -1.5 -0.8 0.5 49.4 53.7 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.5 -3.5 0.4 50.5 53.1 -3.6 -2.5 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 0.3 45.1 51.5 -2.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -5.4 -5.7 -4.2 0.7 55.4 57.2 -6.5 -5.8 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -1.5 -1.7 -0.2 42.3 45.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 0.5 49.3 53.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 0.4 45.6 52.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 0.3 47.8 51.9 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -1.4 -2.8 -0.5 41.3 42.5 -1.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.7 0.4 49.6 53.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 44.2 47.8 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -3.1 -4.4 -1.0 35.1 36.7 -3.1 -2.4 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -3.5 -3.7 -3.8 0.6 53.5 55.7 -4.5 -3.7 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 -1.0 -1.3 -0.7 0.3 45.5 51.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------