***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 -1.2 -1.4 -0.9 1.0 53.0 56.2 -2.7 -1.5 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 1.4 58.2 58.6 -2.9 -1.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 0.2 -0.1 -1.3 1.0 52.7 55.9 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -4.7 -5.6 -5.0 -0.1 42.4 47.0 -6.6 -5.1 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -2.2 -4.0 0.3 46.7 50.9 -3.8 -1.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -3.7 -5.1 0.2 44.7 50.6 -4.1 -2.8 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 1.4 58.2 58.8 -3.2 -1.3 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.5 -7.2 -4.4 0.7 51.2 54.1 -8.6 -7.4 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -1.2 -2.8 0.7 50.9 53.8 -3.1 -1.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.7 -3.8 0.7 51.6 54.0 -3.6 -1.9 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.7 -4.0 0.3 46.6 51.2 -3.2 -1.5 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -3.1 -4.1 0.4 47.6 51.9 -4.8 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -2.8 -4.4 0.3 45.2 50.8 -3.3 -2.3 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -0.6 -2.6 1.2 53.6 56.5 -2.5 -1.0 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -2.8 -4.7 -0.4 40.1 45.3 -3.1 -1.4 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.8 -4.6 0.2 44.2 49.8 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 1.6 58.7 60.0 -3.5 -1.4 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -3.0 -3.7 -4.3 0.8 52.3 55.1 -5.8 -3.7 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 1.3 57.2 57.9 -3.4 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -5.2 -5.5 -5.1 1.0 54.9 56.7 -8.6 -5.9 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 0.8 52.0 54.6 -3.2 -1.6 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 1.6 58.8 59.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -1.1 -1.0 -1.5 1.2 54.9 56.9 -3.0 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.6 -2.9 0.9 52.7 55.2 -3.0 -1.8 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -2.0 -3.4 0.3 47.9 50.9 -3.5 -1.7 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.8 -4.1 0.3 46.3 50.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 0.7 51.3 54.4 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -3.5 -4.9 -0.2 41.2 46.5 -4.1 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.1 -4.5 -4.6 0.9 53.9 56.2 -5.9 -4.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 1.3 56.2 57.8 -2.9 -1.2 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------