***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 42.6 33.8 51.0 94.5 49.0 47.8 24.5 33.9 51.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 40.6 40.1 47.6 100.4 52.1 50.7 22.0 36.5 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 50.0 40.4 50.6 94.3 48.7 47.4 34.3 43.2 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 55.9 56.4 71.3 110.8 62.8 57.7 32.9 50.8 63.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 57.7 53.4 58.0 96.5 52.5 48.5 35.5 52.9 63.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 41.7 44.3 56.0 99.4 56.6 51.0 29.9 37.0 50.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 37.7 33.6 46.4 99.3 51.8 50.3 23.8 31.8 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 64.7 59.0 63.2 99.2 54.5 50.4 50.7 57.8 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 42.4 38.6 55.7 93.1 50.2 46.7 29.0 38.5 50.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 51.7 46.3 58.6 94.0 49.7 47.2 40.3 46.4 55.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 47.4 46.0 57.4 97.8 54.6 49.1 37.2 41.0 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.6 47.5 58.9 101.3 56.3 51.6 36.6 44.9 64.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 52.8 49.8 59.0 99.2 53.4 50.1 40.1 47.5 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 63.7 58.5 57.2 90.7 46.5 44.1 47.3 59.7 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 74.0 73.6 81.5 126.8 71.7 64.8 34.7 51.3 69.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 51.4 50.3 57.9 99.6 56.4 50.4 31.0 45.3 57.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 39.0 34.0 47.7 104.0 55.6 52.7 26.0 32.7 47.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 52.6 47.3 58.9 91.8 47.9 45.6 39.8 48.7 58.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 43.7 38.3 48.2 98.5 50.5 49.5 28.3 38.1 55.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 65.9 61.6 79.8 98.3 53.2 49.3 34.7 60.1 71.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 34.7 43.4 53.5 92.4 49.2 46.1 32.4 45.0 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 39.8 43.8 49.5 103.4 55.7 52.4 26.9 34.3 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.5 34.8 49.4 94.6 46.8 46.5 28.7 40.6 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.3 52.5 54.6 90.6 46.8 44.7 48.1 52.9 56.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 45.4 41.5 59.3 95.9 51.1 48.6 30.1 40.0 58.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 45.8 48.0 65.6 110.4 62.9 57.1 31.8 40.3 53.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 43.8 33.8 52.9 94.0 48.8 47.6 27.0 34.2 56.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 50.5 56.8 68.9 112.6 64.9 58.2 33.0 46.5 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 57.8 69.5 64.0 93.5 49.4 46.2 65.6 70.1 91.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 42.6 37.2 48.5 99.2 51.7 50.2 23.8 36.5 53.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------