***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.4 13.0 106.7 60.7 50.9 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.4 11.4 105.9 60.4 50.2 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.9 13.3 110.0 65.5 51.8 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.0 14.4 15.4 110.8 63.5 53.6 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.2 17.3 14.2 105.1 61.7 51.8 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.0 12.5 98.0 64.0 50.6 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.8 11.0 105.6 61.3 49.3 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.8 18.4 14.4 101.8 61.3 50.8 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.4 14.8 107.0 62.4 51.7 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 13.5 15.0 104.8 62.0 51.0 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.9 15.6 13.5 104.3 63.1 51.9 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.4 13.2 104.2 63.1 51.8 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.3 13.2 101.8 62.6 51.1 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.2 16.1 16.1 111.7 63.1 52.0 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 20.9 17.1 124.2 68.6 56.2 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.8 13.1 102.3 63.2 52.0 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.5 11.1 103.8 61.4 49.8 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.5 15.7 106.2 62.4 51.1 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.7 11.8 105.6 61.0 50.4 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 15.3 18.2 98.7 59.3 49.6 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.2 10.9 14.0 107.4 64.4 51.7 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 9.8 11.5 101.0 59.8 49.6 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.8 12.7 104.7 62.0 50.2 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.7 15.2 111.3 64.6 52.2 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.3 14.4 104.6 60.8 50.9 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.0 15.5 13.9 109.2 63.6 51.5 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.6 13.3 105.0 60.1 50.7 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.8 15.7 14.8 111.4 64.7 54.2 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 17.4 16.3 103.3 60.8 50.5 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.6 11.9 108.1 62.5 50.6 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------