***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.4 12.4 101.8 62.3 55.2 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.8 12.7 118.8 69.3 58.2 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.4 12.4 102.0 63.1 55.2 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.4 15.4 109.9 66.8 57.3 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.5 14.2 102.2 62.2 53.9 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.4 14.1 111.2 63.7 54.2 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.9 15.6 12.3 117.3 70.2 57.9 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.1 19.4 16.7 114.1 64.0 55.3 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 14.1 97.5 59.0 52.4 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 15.5 104.4 59.8 53.3 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.9 14.1 104.8 61.5 53.5 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.2 14.7 112.6 64.0 54.9 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 16.5 14.6 110.5 63.9 54.1 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.4 14.9 103.6 62.9 54.3 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 18.2 17.0 121.1 71.9 59.3 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 14.3 13.8 107.8 62.9 54.0 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.5 12.9 124.8 71.3 58.8 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.8 16.0 106.5 60.4 53.4 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.5 12.5 114.0 67.3 57.5 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.5 18.3 22.6 121.4 66.7 57.0 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.1 12.9 95.1 59.0 52.7 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.6 16.2 13.5 125.7 70.4 59.4 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.7 12.4 105.9 65.0 56.2 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.7 14.1 101.1 60.5 53.1 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.2 13.7 97.2 60.1 53.1 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.7 16.5 125.0 69.3 57.4 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.2 12.6 98.6 61.1 53.2 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.2 17.5 14.9 112.6 68.0 57.3 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 23.4 17.6 111.4 62.1 54.3 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.2 12.7 115.3 68.6 57.8 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------