***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.4 14.1 94.8 60.1 52.6 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.1 12.6 100.3 61.0 52.0 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.0 13.8 91.3 57.7 50.3 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.8 20.1 115.1 65.3 56.8 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.7 16.2 94.9 59.8 49.8 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.1 15.5 102.7 60.6 52.5 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.5 12.2 97.5 60.8 52.1 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.9 17.0 97.9 59.8 51.0 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.2 14.6 87.3 55.0 47.4 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.4 15.0 87.3 54.9 47.4 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.0 15.4 93.1 57.0 49.4 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.4 16.0 99.3 59.6 51.9 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.7 16.0 96.8 58.4 50.0 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.2 15.7 87.0 58.7 46.4 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.9 10.3 22.2 130.0 69.8 61.3 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.6 8.6 16.0 100.6 59.8 51.5 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.4 12.3 101.8 59.7 51.9 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.4 15.1 84.6 53.8 46.5 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.7 13.2 99.9 60.9 51.7 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.0 11.6 22.4 98.7 60.8 52.1 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.9 14.3 88.4 56.8 48.9 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.6 13.2 104.0 59.9 52.7 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.5 14.0 96.5 60.9 50.3 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.4 14.5 83.4 55.0 46.3 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.2 17.2 99.5 61.6 53.7 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.9 19.4 115.2 64.4 55.6 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.5 15.0 96.1 60.1 53.0 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.3 19.6 117.5 65.4 57.2 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.0 17.1 89.7 55.5 48.4 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.6 13.1 99.6 62.4 52.8 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------