***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.8 6.9 11.5 78.2 49.5 46.7 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 9.4 7.1 10.8 81.4 49.7 48.3 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.2 13.0 11.1 77.8 51.7 46.5 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 10.6 10.2 20.5 107.6 61.8 56.4 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.3 8.7 13.4 85.6 53.4 47.5 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.0 13.9 87.9 53.5 50.9 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.3 6.1 10.9 81.8 51.2 48.3 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 14.5 15.1 86.0 50.8 48.5 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.1 12.2 82.5 52.8 46.9 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 7.5 13.1 81.8 49.9 46.7 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.9 9.9 14.4 91.4 54.4 50.1 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.1 9.2 15.0 92.0 54.5 50.1 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.1 7.8 15.2 90.5 52.4 49.6 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.4 11.0 10.5 64.8 42.4 40.3 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 10.9 19.3 25.2 130.1 68.7 63.6 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.5 5.7 15.1 90.4 53.8 50.6 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.6 5.4 11.4 89.6 51.6 50.1 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 11.7 12.0 73.4 45.1 44.3 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.7 7.1 10.7 78.8 48.5 46.9 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 5.4 16.7 77.6 46.5 46.3 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.3 8.8 12.3 81.1 51.2 47.0 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.5 7.2 11.4 86.7 50.7 48.6 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 6.7 10.4 74.4 46.5 44.5 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.2 9.5 10.7 70.6 45.7 43.2 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.9 6.7 14.0 83.9 51.9 47.3 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.8 5.9 15.8 94.7 55.6 51.8 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.1 6.5 12.1 78.8 50.0 46.1 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 9.2 9.0 19.6 108.9 62.6 57.5 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.6 11.7 13.1 73.1 43.9 44.4 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.2 10.7 78.6 51.8 47.5 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------