***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 7.9 9.3 8.7 3.5 84.0 77.3 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 7.1 8.4 8.2 3.1 81.4 75.2 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 9.6 11.0 8.9 3.4 82.0 75.8 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.8 5.4 5.7 3.2 81.1 76.1 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 9.2 10.7 7.6 3.7 84.7 77.4 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 7.7 9.4 7.2 3.9 86.3 79.7 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 7.3 8.0 8.3 3.2 82.3 76.2 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 2.3 3.1 6.7 3.3 79.3 76.2 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 10.0 11.5 8.1 3.5 82.6 76.1 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 8.2 9.5 7.3 3.5 79.9 75.6 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 8.8 10.0 7.9 3.7 83.2 76.7 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 9.5 10.9 7.3 3.5 82.6 77.4 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 8.8 10.3 8.1 3.9 84.1 78.2 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 9.9 11.0 8.0 3.2 76.0 72.1 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 6.6 7.0 6.7 2.7 79.8 75.2 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 9.5 11.6 7.7 3.9 85.0 77.9 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 6.7 7.5 7.8 2.9 79.8 74.5 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 5.7 6.8 7.2 3.6 79.3 75.3 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 8.8 9.8 8.4 3.1 80.5 74.7 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 6.3 7.4 5.9 3.5 81.0 77.6 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 9.6 10.7 8.8 3.6 83.9 76.8 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 7.1 7.7 7.7 2.8 77.7 73.0 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 8.0 8.7 8.5 3.1 79.1 74.0 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 10.4 11.7 8.2 3.4 78.3 74.3 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 7.9 9.5 7.9 3.6 85.8 78.1 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 7.4 8.6 7.2 3.6 86.0 80.7 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 9.2 10.3 8.5 3.6 84.3 77.9 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.4 6.3 3.1 79.5 74.9 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.3 6.7 6.8 3.6 79.5 75.9 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 7.9 8.9 8.4 3.3 82.3 75.9 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------