***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.3 3.4 4.8 -2.6 23.9 25.5 4.9 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.8 4.6 -2.7 23.5 24.3 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 4.4 3.7 5.0 -2.8 24.6 25.9 4.3 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -1.7 -2.3 1.0 -3.2 20.1 21.2 -0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 3.4 3.6 3.2 -3.1 23.5 23.6 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 3.7 3.4 2.9 -2.8 22.1 24.0 5.1 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.0 3.0 4.6 -2.6 22.8 25.1 4.2 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 -0.5 -1.0 2.3 -3.5 17.2 19.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 4.7 4.2 4.2 -3.0 23.7 24.3 5.9 7.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.0 -3.4 20.5 21.4 5.4 7.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.2 3.8 -3.2 21.7 23.2 5.3 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.6 2.9 -3.4 17.6 20.0 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 4.4 3.9 4.0 -3.3 20.4 22.4 5.8 8.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 4.1 4.0 3.9 -3.5 21.2 22.2 5.0 7.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.9 3.7 3.5 -2.1 27.2 27.9 4.1 6.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 4.6 4.5 3.5 -3.1 23.2 24.2 5.7 8.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.0 4.1 -2.7 21.0 22.7 3.4 5.5 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 2.3 1.7 2.6 -3.6 18.3 20.5 3.5 5.7 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 3.0 2.9 4.7 -2.8 24.3 24.6 3.5 7.0 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 0.7 -0.8 2.0 -3.1 16.4 21.4 2.8 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.1 4.0 4.9 -2.8 23.9 25.7 4.7 7.5 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.7 4.3 -2.8 21.7 22.3 3.8 5.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.3 4.6 -2.9 25.0 25.0 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 4.6 4.8 4.0 -3.4 21.8 22.8 6.4 8.7 10.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.8 3.8 4.0 -2.7 25.5 25.9 4.7 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 4.1 4.1 3.2 -2.8 19.6 22.4 5.8 8.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.6 4.1 4.7 -2.5 26.0 26.9 4.7 7.7 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.4 2.1 -2.9 21.3 22.7 4.8 6.6 8.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 1.4 0.6 2.5 -3.3 18.9 21.5 2.7 5.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 3.4 2.7 4.7 -2.7 24.3 25.2 4.0 6.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------